Middle East Summit
Nuclear Proliferation
Nuclear proliferation is a term now used to describe the spread of nuclear weapons. The states allied against Israel hold that it is their right to develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent and warning to the Israeli arsenal. Both Iraq and Iran have sought a nuclear capability as a strategic equalizer. Weapons of mass destruction are seen to threaten and confront Israel, and thus they play to broader inter-Arab themes. Were Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, its neighbors and the entire region would have to carefully consider the impact on their own security situation - other Middle Eastern countries would seriously contemplate acquiring nuclear weapons were Iran to do so, creating a vicious cycle of weaponization.
Arab advances in missile technology, air defenses, and chemical weapons heighten hostilities between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Israel's nuclear weapons program, however, dates back to the late 1950s and the construction of the nuclear facility at Dimona, in the Negev. With French and later South African assistance, the Israelis embarked upon a nuclear weapons program that is thought to have yielded between 75 and 130 devices. Information about the Israeli weapons program is somewhat speculative; nobody knows for sure what kind of weapons they have and what their motives are. Israel is understandably reluctant to see its nuclear advantage eroded. Thus, it is ready to maintain a nuclear monopoly in the region through the use of force.
Iran has posited the creation of weapons of mass destruction-free zones in the Middle East, but this approach is disingenuous. The Israeli nuclear arsenal will continue to drive Iranian WMD (weapons of mass destruction) acquisition efforts for the anticipated future. Furthermore, the perception that nuclear weapons connote self-sufficiency, impartiality, and status will likely survive any regime change in Tehran, further enabling proliferation in the region as a whole. Strategies of containment and technology denial may slow the process, but new permanent solutions are needed.
Iran is a member of the NPT but the U.S. believes it to be secretly pursuing a nuclear weapons program. Due to that fact, the U.S. has taken measures to end international trade and commerce with Iran by encouraging Germany and Russia to cease trade with nuclear companies based in Iran. Opinions vary as to Iran's intentions and capabilities regarding nuclear weapons. Were Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, it would affect the on-going debate in Egypt about whether it needs to nuclearize in order to maintain its status as a regional power. If in addition Saudi Arabia were to acquire nuclear weapons, it is difficult to see Egypt remaining non-nuclear, because it would be unacceptable to Egypt to be perceived as a less potent power than another Arab country.
Iran's nuclear program began under the Shah in 1974, but was abruptly suspended following the Islamic revolution in 1978-79. It was not until 1984 that Ayatollah Khomeini revived Iran's nuclear weapons program. In 1987 and 1988, the reactor sites at Bushehr I and II were damaged by Iraqi air strikes, and progress was again arrested. Few doubt Iran's intention to develop a covert nuclear weapons program. Nevertheless, problems are rising due to hypothesized nuclear proliferation in many Arab and Middle East countries. This nuclear crisis must be addressed in order to avoid a future catastrophe.